8/5 Torchbearer Weekly Policy Update
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- 1 Big Thing: Employers’ Big Hiring Pullback
- Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady. But Cuts Aren’t Far Off.
- Weaker Labor Market Stokes Fears of a Downturn, Spurs Market Sell-Off
- Playbook for Enhancing Indiana’s Mental and Behavioral Health Workforce
- Share the Torchbearer Newsletter with Your Network!
- Important Dates
Let’s dive in.
1 Big Thing: Employers’ Big Hiring Pullback
The U.S. job market looks to have frozen up. Companies aren't doing large-scale layoffs — but they have slowed down hiring, and fewer workers are quitting their jobs voluntarily.
Why it matters: Employers are showing the least appetite for bringing on new workers in years. That's a byproduct of the economy cooling — though not so much that employers feel they need to let go of the staff they have.
Driving the news: There were 5.3 million hires in June, 314,000 fewer than in May, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover survey released this morning.
- The rate of hiring, at 3.4% of total employment, is the lowest since March 2020 and a half-point below its levels before the pandemic.
The other side: The freeze-up on the part of employers is benefiting workers who are already employed. The layoff and discharge rate was 0.9% — the lowest level on records that date back to 2000.
Between the lines: The Fed began a two-day meeting this morning at which its leaders will debate whether the labor market is deteriorating in ways that add urgency to interest rate cuts. The hiring numbers add to that evidence.
What they're saying: "If you hear people saying 'it's a really tough time to find a job,' this is why," tweeted Guy Berger, director of economic research at the Burning Glass Institute.
- "Last time hiring was this low, we were still digging our way out of the Great Recession," Berger added.
The big picture: Evidence that workers have less confidence about the labor market and other job opportunities has been building for months.
- The quits rate — a temperature check on workers' willingness to voluntarily leave their jobs — held at 2.1%, the lowest since August 2020.
The bottom line: Workers looking for new jobs won't find nearly the same opportunities as in recent years. But those with a job seem to have security, for now. (Axios)
Fed Keeps Interest Rates Steady. But Cuts Aren’t Far Off.
The Federal Reserve is poised to cut interest rates for the first time since the pandemic, likely in September, though officials want more data before deciding.
Why it matters: Lowering rates could stimulate economic growth, but waiting ensures inflation is under control and the job market is stable.
- Balancing these factors is crucial to avoid premature actions that could undermine progress.
Driving the news: Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that upcoming inflation and employment data will guide their decision.
- Powell's remarks came after a two-day policy meeting where rates were left unchanged.
What’s next: The next Fed meeting in September will provide a clearer picture of the economy and potential rate adjustments.
- Key indicators to watch include inflation trends and labor market conditions. (Washington Post)
Weaker Labor Market Stokes Fears of a Downturn, Spurs Market Sell-Off
Employers added 114,000 jobs in July, but the unemployment rate spiked to 4.3%, raising concerns that interest rates have been too high for too long.
Why it matters: The unexpected rise in unemployment signals a weaker labor market, stirring fears of an impending recession.
- Financial markets reacted sharply, with major stock indexes falling significantly.
Driving the news: Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the balance between curbing inflation and protecting the job market.
- The recent jobs report shows broad hiring trends downshifting and a troubling rise in unemployment.
What’s next: Economists warn that the Fed may need to cut rates more aggressively if the labor market continues to weaken.
- Upcoming data on inflation and employment will be crucial for the Fed's decision-making. (Washington Post)
Playbook for Enhancing Indiana’s Mental and Behavioral Health Workforce
The Bowen Center is leading a project to strengthen Indiana’s mental and behavioral health workforce, supported by Lilly Endowment Inc.
Why it matters: Untreated mental illness affects over 345,000 Hoosiers, with significant impacts on homelessness, unemployment, and incarceration.
- Access to treatment relies on a robust workforce ready to serve communities.
Engaging Experts: Subject matter experts and advocates will help develop strategies and champion implementation efforts.
- Diverse perspectives ensure comprehensive solutions.
Landscape Analysis: A thorough review of Indiana’s mental health training pipeline will identify opportunities for improvement.
- Includes a 50-state policy comparison and county-level workforce assessment.
Strategic Plays: The project will gather and implement effective workforce initiatives and recommendations.
- Early exposure to mental health careers is vital to the pipeline. (Bowen Center)
The full playbook is available here.
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Important Dates:
- State Board of Education - Wednesday, August 14 at 9am
- Indiana Medicaid Advisory Committee - Wednesday, August 21 at 10am
- Medicaid Oversight Committee - Tuesday, August 27 at 9am
- Funding Indiana’s Roads for a Stronger, Safer Tomorrow Task Force - Tuesday, August 27 at 1pm
- Interim Study Committee on Corrections and Criminal Code - Tuesday, September 10 at 11am
- Interim Study Committee on Child Services - Wednesday, September 18 at 10am
- Interim Study Committee on Corrections and Criminal Code - Wednesday, October 2 at 11am