11/4 Torchbearer Weekly Policy Update
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- US Job Market Shows Confusing Results
- Mixed Signals on U.S. Jobs
- 50 Million Americans Have Already Voted
- U.S. Economy Grows Stronger at 2.8%
- Kelley School Predicts 2025 Economic Trends
- Share the Torchbearer Newsletter with Your Network!
- Important Dates:
US Job Market Shows Confusing Results
The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell, but those collecting benefits rose to a three-year high.
Why it matters: The rise in continuing claims suggests challenges in finding new jobs, indicating a potential slowdown in worker demand despite a strong economy.
- The increase in benefits collection could reflect difficulties in job placement.
- This trend might hint at waning demand for workers.
By the numbers: Jobless claims fell by 15,000 to 227,000, against a forecast of 241,000, while continuing claims rose by 28,000 to 1.9 million, the highest since 2021.
What’s next: The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate to support the job market amidst weakening employment data, aiming for a “soft landing” to lower inflation without causing a recession. (IBJ)
Mixed Signals on U.S. Jobs
September data on job openings and labor turnover is an eye-of-the-beholder affair, offering both positive and negative signs about the state of the U.S. economy.
Driving the news: On the negative side of the ledger, employers slashed the number of job openings posted by 418,000, driving the rate of openings down two ticks to 4.5% — the lowest of this expansion.
- In other data that points to a slowing labor market, the rate of layoffs and discharges climbed, with 165,000 more people involuntarily losing their jobs in September than in August, while the number quitting their jobs fell by 107,000.
Yes, but: In a sunnier sign, the rate at which employers hired rose by 123,000, pushing the hiring rate to its highest since May after a summer slump.
- That combination of data "signal a labor market which likely continued to soften," wrote ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak in a note, "despite the stronger-than-expected headline numbers in the September jobs report."
Of note: There is some uncertainty around how much this month's JOLTS data may be affected by Hurricane Helene and the Boeing strike. Unlike the September payrolls data that's based on conditions in a "reference week" in the middle of the month, JOLTS encompasses the entire month.
- So any effects of the strike (which began Sept. 13) or hurricane (which hit Sept. 26) may be captured in JOLTS but not the jobs report.
- That may depress hires and overstate layoffs, Pollak added. (Axios)
50 Million Americans Have Already Voted
More than 50 million Americans have already voted a week ahead of Election Day, according to the University of Florida's early-vote tracker.
Why it matters: As both candidates hit the trail for one last week of campaigning, a whole lot of votes have already been cast.
- Roughly 39% of those voters are registered Democrats; about 36% are registered Republicans.
- A plurality, 41%, are older than 65.
Context: A total of about 100 million people voted early in 2020, either in person or by mail. (Axios)
U.S. Economy Grows Stronger at 2.8%
The U.S. economy expanded at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q3, slightly below previous quarters, though still an increase.
Why it matters: This growth reflects a resilient economy amid policy changes and political uncertainty, supporting consumer spending and investment.
- Despite inflation, consumer spending has exceeded expectations.
- Economic indicators show continued momentum despite challenges.
The big picture: The GDP report arrives just before elections, with both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump focusing on their own economic strengths (and their opponents’ economic weaknesses) to sway voters.
What’s next: Federal Reserve’s rate cuts aim to foster further growth, but upcoming elections and economic policies may influence future economic trajectories. (Washington Post)
Indiana University Kelley Predicts 2025 Economic Trends
Kelley School of Business has released its 2025 economic forecast, offering insights into future economic conditions in Indiana.
Why it matters: Understanding economic forecasts helps businesses and policymakers prepare for upcoming challenges and opportunities.
- The forecast provides guidance on expected economic trends and potential impacts on various sectors.
- Businesses can use these insights for strategic planning and decision-making.
The big picture: Indiana’s economic landscape is poised for changes influenced by domestic and global factors, as highlighted in the Kelley School’s analysis.
What’s next: Stakeholders are advised to review the forecast’s key points and adjust their strategies accordingly to navigate the evolving economic environment. (Inside Indiana Business)
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Important Dates:
- Organization Day: Tuesday, November 19th.