11/12 Torchbearer Weekly Policy Update
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Mike Braun’s Transition Team Announced
U.S. Senator Mike Braun swiftly organized his transition team after winning last week’s Indiana governor’s race.
Why it matters: Braun’s decisive victory and quick transition preparations signal his readiness to tackle state issues from fiscal responsibility to public safety.
- With a mix of experienced government officials and strategic advisors from his campaign, Braun is poised to implement his policy agenda effectively.
Driving the news: His team largely consists of former members of Gov. Mitch Daniels’ administration and board members of the nonprofit Hoosiers for Opportunity, Prosperity & Enterprise, or HOPE, which partnered with Braun’s campaign to develop policy specifics during the campaign.
- The team will immediately start policy development and agency reviews, ensuring a seamless transition.
- State agencies will hand over a slate of information, likely on the expected 2025 state budget, legislative priorities, management organization, contracts and vendor agreements, legal matters and agency performance. State law requires all agencies and organizations that receive state money to provide the governor-elect with requested information within six days of the election.
Who’s in Charge: Leading the effort as Braun’s transition chair is Victor Smith, a partner at law firm Bose McKinney & Evans LLP and secretary of commerce under former Gov. Mike Pence.
Josh Kelley will join as transition director. Kelley was Braun’s campaign manager twice previously and his Senate chief of staff. Several of Braun’s former staff members are following him to the governor’s office.
The transition team’s vice chairs so far:
- Betsy Wiley, president and CEO of Hoosiers for Quality Education and deputy chief of staff under Daniels;
- Jim Bopp, a prominent conservative lawyer with a long legal resume that includes arguing before the U.S. Supreme Court;
- Ryan Kitchell, former chair of the Governor’s Workforce Cabinet under Holcomb and former director of the Indiana Office of Management and Budget under Daniels;
- Jim Purucker, executive director of the Wine and Spirits Distributors of Indiana and president of John Frick & Associates;
- Brad Rateike, founding principal of Bar Communications, deputy press secretary and policy director under Daniels, and former director of cabinet communications under Donald Trump during his first term;
- Randy Head, chairman of the Indiana State Republican Committee;
- Matt Bell, principal at Catalyst Public Affairs Group and former state representative;
- Dan Dumezich, retired partner and tax attorney and former state representative.
What’s next: Braun plans to meet with GOP legislative leaders to discuss priorities for the upcoming session, leveraging his election mandate for impactful governance.
- The primary focus will be on budget cuts and fiscal discipline in state agencies. (IBJ)
Indiana GOP Majority Steady
Indiana’s Republican leadership remains unchanged following internal caucus votes, maintaining a stronghold in both legislative chambers.
Breaking it Down: Sen. Rodric Bray will continue as Senate President Pro Tempore, while Rep. Todd Huston remains House Speaker.
- Both leaders are set to be confirmed on Organization Day (November 19th), marking the ceremonial start of the 2025 legislative session.
What’s next: The upcoming 2025 session will focus on the state budget, with expectations to address education funding, infrastructure, and Medicaid.
- The solid GOP leadership aims to craft the next budget with fiscal prudence and strategic planning (Indiana Capital Chronicle)
Fed Reserve Cuts Rates Amid Economic Uncertainty
The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by a quarter-point as inflation cools, but Trump’s re-election adds uncertainty to future cuts.
Why it matters: The rate cut indicates the Fed’s focus on a softening job market, while Trump’s policies could help affect future economic stability.
- The cut is intended to sustain economic growth by making loans cheaper for consumers and businesses.
Driving the news: Despite promising economic data, job growth slowed to its lowest pace in four years, influenced by hurricanes and strikes.
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for a balanced approach, as he reassured that the central bank’s strategy remains independent of political influence.
What’s next: Analysts predict another rate cut in December, but the pace of future cuts remains uncertain amid political uncertainties.
- Powell dismissed concerns about potential political interference, reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to its mandate. (WSJ)
Busted $1.9 trillion bet
Nearly four years ago, the Biden administration and congressional Democrats made a $1.9 trillion bet in the form of a COVID relief bill, dubbed the American Rescue Plan.
- They miscalculated, as it contributed to a surge in inflation that fueled massive voter discontent and Donald Trump's return to the White House, Axios chief economic correspondent Neil Irwin writes.
Why it matters: In the next recession, politicians and policymakers may be more hesitant to unleash the type of programs that drove America's rapid recovery from the pandemic-induced crisis.
⚡ Catch up quick: With the ARP, Democrats wagered that the risk of under-stimulating the economy was greater than the risk of over-stimulating. They were determined not to repeat the mistakes of the 2010s, when unemployment remained elevated long after the Global Financial Crisis was long over.
- The ARP included $1,300 payments to American families that were already sitting on hefty pandemic savings, generous unemployment benefits at a time businesses were ramping up hiring, and extra cash for state governments that were in fine financial shape.
- Democrats shrugged off the concerns of centrist and conservative economists who warned that the cumulative stimulus — the $1.9 trillion ARP came on the heels of $2.7 trillion in pandemic relief enacted under former President Trump — was a recipe for inflation.
🌎 Reality check: The surge in inflation occurred globally, even in countries with more modest fiscal action.
- But that doesn't mean the super-sized U.S. stimulus didn't have an inflationary impact. An analysis from the San Francisco Fed, for example, found that fiscal policy could account for about 3 percentage points of 2021 inflation, which totaled about 7%.
Between the lines: The Biden administration has pointed to falling inflation over the last two years — amid a generally favorable job market — as a great triumph.
- The speed of the U.S. expansion the last few years has been the envy of the world, much faster than other large rich countries, and the 2021 fiscal action helped jump-started it.
- But that claim was irrelevant to personal perception. Voters felt the cumulative impact of inflation: Prices are 21% higher now than 4 years ago. (Axios)
Stat du jour: Where women rule
A record 13 women will be governors next year after New Hampshire elected Kelly Ayotte.
- The eight Republicans and five Democrats will make up 26% of U.S. governors. The previous record was 12 women governors in 2023, Rutgers' Center for American Women and Politics notes.
Ayotte, a former U.S. senator, is the third woman elected governor of her state, AP reports.
- Reality check: 18 states have never had a woman governor.
12 other leaders: Kay Ivey of Alabama ... Katie Hobbs of Arizona ... Sarah Huckabee Sanders of Arkansas ... Kim Reynolds of Iowa ... Laura Kelly of Kansas ... Janet Mills of Maine ... Maura Healey of Massachusetts ... Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan ... Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico ... Kathy Hochul of New York ... Tina Kotek of Oregon ... Kristi Noem of South Dakota. (Axios)
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Important Dates:
- Organization Day: Tuesday, November 19th
- State and Local Tax Review Task Force - Wednesday, November 20th, 2 pm